nyc.general

On Mon, 03 Mar 2008 20:24:20 -0500, Governor Swill
<@> wrote:

>DeserTBoB used a stick in the sand to babble
>>On Sun, 02 Mar 2008 21:03:42 -0500, Pisano
>>wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> /watch?v=v_kI3swIAc0
>>
>>Ron Paul has one distinction...he's nuttier than John McCain!
>
>Tomorrow is the day. Will Obama's NAFTAgate help Hillary in Ohio?

Eh...not sure on that, but she'll carry Ohio.

>Help him in Texas? *bated breath*

No.

> Either way, the streak stops at
>11. RH, Vermont and Ohio are all in the same time zone. She'll get
>at least one of these, probably two.

I think she'll run the table of those three.

>If she loses Texas on the Latino
>vote, she's in trouble. If she loses it on the white vote, she's
>REALLY in trouble.

Agreed. However, "Obamomentum" has run up against a wall in Texas.
Hillary showed a modest 2 point up tick in two polls yesterday, but
she's still within the MoE with him in Texas. Negative news coverage
of Obama today COULD (not sure yet) sink him there as well.
"Rezkogate" isn't playing well for him.

Here's my "seat of pants" analysis for tomorrow:

Texas: Who knows??? She's take the vote-appointed delegates, Obama
will take the caucus-appointed delegates, mostly due to a lot of right
wingers crossing over as "fake Democrats" to try to lock her out of
the nomination (as reported on CNN and others today). It's a wash
overall.

Ohio: Clinton by 7%

Rhode Island: Clinton by 10%

Vermont: Clinton by 3-5%

She's STILL in trouble if she takes those three, as Obama will prevent
her from getting a lot of caucus-selected delegates in Texas, where
the Obama camp has learned well how to "game" the caucus system, and
Vermont and Lil Rhodie don't have enough delegates to make a big dent
in Obama's pledged lead. That leaves it all up to Ohio to come
through with enough delegates to position her to pass him on April 22
in Pennsylvania, where Obama is doing poorly. If she chews off 10%
there, she's got enough pledged delegates to swing the uncommitted
supers at convention and she's got it. However, there're a helluva
lot of "ifs" in that strategy.

One thing's for sure...Mark Penn's political career as a campaign
strategist is over. I've never seen a more bungled campaign, and I've
seen a lot of 'em!